10.30.2008 • 21.09 0
McCains camp shouldn’t be hedging bets on them either.
nice paper found at Ambinders blog at the Atlantic:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/stan_greenbergs_undecideds.php
Its a bit lengthy, but good stuff – basically refutes the rosey memo released by the mcCain camp a few days ago over selling the polls in thier favor, for what? Moral support? Who knows.
538’s numbers are late again.
Filed under: Politics
• 13.46 0
If the prior it maybe alright – the latter unexceptable, especial this late in the campaign.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy @ MSNBC’s First Read
DEFIANCE, Ohio — “Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today?”
That’s the question John McCain asked roughly 6,000 people at Defiance Junior High School here this morning, But the correct answer was no — Joe the Plumber was nowhere to be found.
There are conflicting reports about where or when or if Joe will appear with McCain at some point during his two-day bus tour of Ohio, but the candidate clearly thought that he was meeting him here in Defiance, the first stop on the tour… [...]
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/30/1616435.aspx
Marc Ambinder at the Atlantic
“Joe’s with us today,”
Joe. Where are ya? Where is Joe?
Is Joe here with us?
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/no_show_joe_a_haiku.php
Filed under: Politics
• 09.28 0
marc Ambinder has a piece about early voting here : http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/colorado_ev.php
And 538’s Nate Silver was a little late lastnight with the numbers, where it appears nationally McCain has closed the spread a hair – but not in critical, tipping point or battleground states. Nate thinks the polls should show McCain gaining an average of a point a day in order for him to have a chance.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1029.html
I wonder how early voting affects McCains chances as early voters lean Obama – It would seem a logical premise to think McCain has to close the gap quicker to take the edge off of an Obama early advantage, I’m wondering if McCain even matches Obama in the polls on November 4th will it be too late concedering how many went to the polls already with an Obama lean.
McCains running out of time, and his chances are thinning out as the day aproaches; 5 days to go.
Filed under: Politics
10.29.2008 • 15.29 0
“My friends”
saw this on MSNBC – thought it was funny – Its a syncronized view of the 2nd and 3rd presidential debates when the candidates repeated talking points word for word. Good, funnyStuff.
http://www.236.com/video/2008/watch_synchronized_presidentia_9857.php
Filed under: Politics
• 14.26 0
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-miami-rally-getting-ugly-down.html
I plan on avoiding political rallies like the plague for the remaining days of the campaign, I hope this isn’t a sign of things to come in divided communities come election day when one side is disappointed. Granted nobody was hurt, but the belief we will see violence on election day because of the belief that Obama is disqualified to lead is real down here. At work im told, just because he has a populist measage that, once he gets into office he’ll be just like Castrol or Chavez. Latin Americans have an honest fear of communism and socialism concedering that they’ve seen it happend in thier countries. And they’re not convinced when I tell them it can’t happen here in America. Its not possible here in America.
A co-worker told me he remembers a mob with baseball bats keeping some away from a site in 2000.
I hope the fear of danger as nate referenced it at 538 – does not keep people away from the polls on November 4th as it has convinced me to stay away from rallies. It’s ashame that a politician in our nation has to wind up fear to gin up votes, in todays world we shouldn’t have to dip into the past, the cost of demonizing those we disagree with is as high as history tells us. If nothing I fear happends on ellection night my faith in America will be renewed. If violence infects my city an arguement for America’s exceptionalism in the future will fall on deaf ears.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-miami-rally-getting-ugly-down.html
Filed under: Politics
• 08.37 0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o
found it in a comment by sgwhiteinfla to a blog post at http://swampland.blogs.time.com
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/10/28/its-always-darkest-before/
complaceny concerns the Obama camp at this point where they’ve done well – but everything now depends on supporters getting out the vote.
Filed under: Politics
10.28.2008 • 17.05 0
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/counterevidence_watch_narrows.php
Theres not much good news for McCain out there today, Marc Ambinder has been keeping an eye out for evidence that the polls are wrong about Obama having the lead. By looking at …yeah, more polls. (:
The McCain camps arguement is that the vast majority of the polls are wrong and that we should keep looking. My advice is that while you wait for the good news for McCain – you don’t hold your breath. He holds up the latest traditional Likely Voter model at Gallup – the one that discounts voters who have not turned out in the past but still intend to turn out in this cycle, given Obama’s lead among this group, his lead is narrowed a bit. You would of course have to ignore the other 2 gallup models that in my opinion are more reasonable indicators, they have Obama ahead 51 to 44 and 50 to 43.
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx
Im still waiting for the days polls at 538 I like the way they break down the numbers.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Filed under: Politics
• 15.10 0
In a flyier being distributed in Virginia – Democrats and independants leaning democrat should turn out on November 5th to vote and Republicans on the 4th according to a new Virginia state law?
Granted anybody that takes this as fact probably should try sourcing thier information a little better but this is a real ugly tact. I wonder if we’ll be seeing junk like this in Pennsylvania & Colorado too.
Filed under: Politics
• 08.15 0
This ( http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html ) is hot.
Found it here ( http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/florida_early_voting_update_de.php ) at the http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com blog.
Early voting maybe significant enough in some places that it replaces in importance the get out the vote op on nov4th – well, maybe thats going too far. But it certainly is going to make a difference if you can get a large portion of voters to the polls before election day – if anything its a measure of enthusiasm. Turn outs a good thing for our country either way and it should limit the stress on polling places on november 4th – I feel sorry for places like Pennsylvania that won’t have early voting this cycle, hope the weather is alright on the 4th.
Filed under: Politics
10.27.2008 • 14.29 0
Obamas lead remains stable with a week to go according to gallup.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111466/Gallup-Daily-Race-Stable-Obama-Leading.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Time.com has an interesting article on the topic and McCains situation at this point.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1853877,00.html
Filed under: Politics
