An engineering student’s Blog

” …All of this. All of this was for nothing – unless we go to the stars.” – Infection, Babylon 5, J. Michael Straczynski

McCains chances

McCains closing strategy seems to be to flip Pennsylvania – and do well in the other battleground states, when asked about him being behind in the polls yesterday on Meet the press with Tom Brokaw, he brushed off the polls saying theyve been all over the place and that its going to be about a good ground game on election day, a get out the vote operation.  Just a few problems with that.  MSNBCs Chuck Todd has moved Colorado and Virginia into Obamas collumn this week, why? because of evidence that Obamas GOTV operation will be effective in turning positive polling into real votes in those states.  In fact Obamas ground operative has been effective in turning enthusiasm for his candidacy into a multiplier for his gotv op, much more so than john McCains at least up until this point.  And Obama can lose, granted highly unlikely at this point, being solidly ahead in several polls in Pennsylvania, he can lose the state and still win the election.  In fact Obama is ahead in Ohio and Florida as well and if he lost those to McCain as well on November 4th he could still win.  Obama has established so many paths to getting the required 270 electoral votes needed to win that the probability of McCain winning, based on current polls is less than .2%.

But of course, its not over until its over.

www.fivethirtyeight.com
www.270towin.com
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/27/1596444.aspx
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

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Filed under: Politics

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