An engineering student’s Blog

” …All of this. All of this was for nothing – unless we go to the stars.” – Infection, Babylon 5, J. Michael Straczynski

the counterevidence watch by Marc Ambinder at the Atlantic coming up short

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/counterevidence_watch_narrows.php

Theres not much good news for McCain out there today, Marc Ambinder has been keeping an eye out for evidence that the polls are wrong about Obama having the lead.  By looking at …yeah, more polls.  (:

The McCain camps arguement is that the vast majority of the polls are wrong and that we should keep looking.  My advice is that while you wait for the good news for McCain – you don’t hold your breath.  He holds up the latest traditional Likely Voter model at Gallup – the one that discounts voters who have not turned out in the past but still intend to turn out in this cycle, given Obama’s lead among this group, his lead is narrowed a bit.  You would of course have to ignore the other 2 gallup models that in my opinion are more reasonable indicators, they have Obama ahead 51 to 44 and 50 to 43. 

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx

Im still waiting for the days polls at 538 I like the way they break down the numbers.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

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