At 538 Nate has McCains chances of winning the election at less than 2 percent.
The final national daily tracking polls have Obama up by 5-11 points and in 6 out of 8 of the toss up states Obama has a credible lead. All he needs is for those who polled for him to show up on election day and cast the die, and we will have him as President elect at the end of the day.
The states to watch I think are Indiana – likely McCain, but Obama ground ops overwhelm McCains and the polls are close enough for an upset, that would make it a potentially short night. Then Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania. If Obama gets the expected Virginia and Pennsylvania but not Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Thats an Obama squeaker even in the unlikely event that McCain can sweep the western 3 that are leaning Obama – Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.
If McCain some how closed the 8 point lead in Pennsylvania in 24 hours – Obama would need to sweep the western 3.
If McCain takes Virginia Obama would need 2 of the 3 to edge out a win, and one of them would have to be Colorado.
I have to study for a Math test.
goodluck everybody with your election day.